Fifteen goals. That's all Alex Ovechkin is on pace to finish the 2023-24 season with at this rate.
Ovechkin's never finished a season with a measly 15 goals. He's never fallen below the 20-goal marker, not even in condensed seasons. And now, for the first time in his career, he's gone 13 straight games without a goal. The five goals he has at this point aren't even all that impressive — only three were scored with a goaltender in net.
Even if 38-year-old Ovechkin is far removed from his prime, this is a stark, unexpected decline for one of the greatest goal scorers of all time. So, what's behind the aging superstar's drop-off? Is this harsh reality the new normal? Is there a chance he can turn it around in the second half of the season?
The Aging Factor
The elephant in the room is his age. Not every player makes it to 38 in the NHL, and if they do, they're often a shell of themselves at this point in their career. Aging curves tell us that a player tends to peak in their early-to-mid-20s and starts to decline in their 30s with a sharp downtick in their late 30s. It's worth noting that the sample of skaters still playing into their late 30s is obviously smaller to work with.
There can be outliers and randomness in aging curves, especially for elite talent. Their peak tends to be so high that their eventual trend down can still be above-average. Power-play scoring also tends to age better than even-strength production, which should work in Ovechkin's favor. Additionally, volume shooters tend to age better than snipers. However, these factors haven't been enough to prevent his decline this season.
The Power Play Predicament
One glaring aspect is Ovechkin's dip in power-play scoring, which has historically been a significant contributor to his goal totals. This year, with just one tally on the power play, it accounts for a career-low 20 percent of his scoring. Ovechkin has had poor shooting luck, converting on only 2.6 percent of his power-play shots, significantly lower than his usual 15 percent. However, regression to the mean would suggest an improvement in the second half of the season.
image: Ovechkin's scoring decline Photo credit: HockeyViz
The increase in opponents blocking Ovechkin's shots has also impacted his power-play success. By actively blocking his shooting lanes and limiting his ability to receive the puck, penalty killers neutralize his threat. The predictability of the Capitals' power-play formation, along with the lack of fluid movement, has further hindered Ovechkin's effectiveness.
Decline Beyond Power Play
The problem for Ovechkin extends beyond his power-play performance. He has only scored one five-on-five goal this season. His shooting percentage and shot volume are at career lows, and he has experienced difficulties generating expected goals. This decline can be attributed to both individual factors and the lack of support from his teammates.
Surrounding Ovechkin with high-caliber passers becomes crucial as he no longer possesses the same abilities as in previous years. However, his primary centers, Dylan Strome and Evgeny Kuznetsov, have been less effective in setting up plays and creating scoring chances. This lack of playmaking support has resulted in career-low shot and scoring chance numbers for Ovechkin.
Chasing the Goal-Scoring Record
Although some aspects of Ovechkin's game should regress to the mean, catching up to the goal-scoring record will be a challenge. The lack of roster support combined with individual declines pose significant obstacles. Ovechkin's slowed pace in the first third of the season has created a considerable gap, and it remains uncertain if he can maintain the necessary rate to reach the record. Stamina could also be an issue, as an 82-game season takes a toll on any player, especially an aging star.
Aging is inevitable, even for the greats like Ovechkin. The pursuit of goal number 894 to tie the record is not lost, but the slow start puts pressure on him to overcome the daunting task of scoring 67 goals.
Data collected prior to Sunday's matchup versus Carolina, via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, Hockey-Reference, AllThreeZones, and NaturalStatTrick. This story relies on shot-based metrics.
